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Will Milder Weather Keep Natural Gas Prices Under Pressure?

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The U.S. Energy Department's latest inventory report showed a slightly lower-than-expected increase in natural gas supplies. Despite this encouraging data, futures ended the week down double digits, reflecting concerns about soft near-term demand due to mild weather.

At this time, we advise investors to focus on stocks such as Expand Energy (EXE - Free Report) , Coterra Energy (CTRA - Free Report) and Excelerate Energy (EE - Free Report) .

EIA Reports a Build Marginally Smaller Than Market Expectations

Stockpiles held in underground storage in the lower 48 states rose by 110 billion cubic feet (Bcf) for the week ended May 9, just shy of analysts’ guidance of a 111 Bcf addition. The increase compared with the five-year (2020-2024) average net addition of 83 Bcf and last year’s growth of 73 Bcf for the reported week.

The latest build put total natural gas stocks at 2,255 Bcf, 375 Bcf (14.3%) below the 2024 level, but 57 Bcf (2.6%) higher than the five-year average.

The total supply of natural gas averaged 110.4 Bcf per day, edging up 0.4 Bcf per day on a weekly basis due to higher dry production.

Meanwhile, daily consumption fell to 94.4 Bcf from 94.8 Bcf in the previous week, reflecting lower residential/commercial usage on the back of milder spring temperatures across most of the country.

Natural Gas Prices Struggle

U.S. natural gas futures had a rough week, falling about 12% despite a recent heat wave in Texas. Prices ended Friday at $3.343/MMBtu, their lowest in two weeks. The slide came as mild spring weather kept demand subdued, allowing for a third consecutive triple-digit storage injection. Shoulder-season patterns have meant weaker consumption, further weighing on sentiment.

Final Thoughts

Forecasts suggest that mild weather may continue into late May, limiting cooling demand and enabling more strong storage builds. While production has been affected slightly due to pipeline maintenance, the impact has been smaller than expected. LNG export flows have also remained soft. With no immediate signs of scorching heat, bulls remain cautious, and any near-term rally will likely need stronger temperature-driven demand.

Still, the longer-term picture looks brighter. If early June ushers in hotter-than-normal conditions, prices could rebound as demand rises. For now, investors are advised to exercise caution and opt for stocks with strong fundamentals and potential to overcome the current headwinds.

3 Stocks to Focus on

Expand Energy: Expand Energy has solidified itself as the largest natural gas producer in the United States, following the Chesapeake-Southwestern merger. With key assets in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins, Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) EXE is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for natural gas, driven by LNG exports, AI/data centers, EV expansion, and broader electrification trends.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Expand Energy’s 2025 earnings per share indicates a 458.2% year-over-year surge. Over the past 60 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for this firm’s 2025 earnings has moved up around 18.7%.

Coterra Energy: It is an independent upstream operator primarily engaged in the exploration, development and production of natural gas. Headquartered in Houston, TX, the firm owns some 183,000 net acres in the gas-producing Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. The Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) company’s share of natural gas in its overall production is around 65%.

Coterra’s expected earnings per share growth rate for three to five years is currently 20.3%, which compares favorably with the industry's growth rate of 17.8%. Valued at around $19 billion, Coterra Energy has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 1.5%, on average.

Excelerate Energy: Based in The Woodlands, TX, the company specializes in LNG infrastructure and services, focusing on Floating Storage Regasification Units (FSRUs) and related terminals. With operations across emerging and developed markets, Excelerate Energy represents 20% of the global FSRU fleet and 5% of global regasification capacity. Founded in 2003, the company aims to expand into LNG-to-power generation and gas distribution, delivering reliable and flexible energy solutions worldwide.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Excelerate Energy’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 10.2% year-over-year growth. This #3 Ranked firm has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 10.3%, on average.


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